Eldest Brother of North Korea's New Leader Says North Korea in Danger of Military Takeover

The new leader of North Korea has quite a few hurdles to jump and the fate of millions may very well rest in the hands of his eldest brother.

The eldest brother of North Korea's new leader says that reforms are needed in order for the country to avoid the collapse of its economy and the end of its Stalinist regime. Kim Jong-Nam, half brother of North Korea's new leader, Kim Jong-Un, believes that the military has become so powerful that it may step in and take over.

Comments like these from Jong-Nam appear in a book written by Yoji Gomi entitled, "My Father Kim Jong-Il and Me," (Yoji Gomi is a Japanese journalist and senior staff writer at the Tokyo Shimbun). Gomi states that he built a relationship with Jong-Nam after the two met in Beijing back in 2004.

Gomi's book will be published in Japan by Bungeishunju this Friday, but some sources are saying Jong-Nam has requested that Gomi delay its release.

Should we be worried if the North Korean military performs some sort of coup detat on its own regime? I'd say, YES, but two things remain uncertain: 1) Will Jong-Un fail to 'heal' the current state of affairs with his newfound authority and responsibilities? And, 2) Would the military take over if Jong-Un fails?

With regards to the first question, circumstances appear a bit dire and Jong-Nam had this to say regarding Jong-Un's chances of success or failure: "I question how a young heir with two years [of training as a successor] would be able to inherit... absolute power... It is likely that the existing power elites will succeed my father by keeping the young successor as a symbol."

I suppose it go either way for Jong-Un's success. His lack of extensive training will work against him and should they work against him overwhelmingly, certain "power elites" can apparently string him along like a puppet and possibly maintain the status quo.

With regards to the second question, according to Jong-Nam, "My father governed the country with the backing of the military, but the power of the military has become too strong. If the succession ends in failure, the military will wield the real power for sure..." He also said, in an email to Gomi back in January 3 that, "Anyone with normal thinking would find it difficult to tolerate three generations of hereditary succession." If these statements are true, then I suppose that the North Korean military has indeed a very high likelihood of conducting some sort of coup.

So then the real question comes down to the relationship between the alleged "power elites" and the military. Are they in congruence or at odds? Or, are they the SAME entity? No one knows for sure - well maybe a few intelligence bureaus - but either way, I would bloody hate to be in Jong-Un's shoes right about now.

But let's assume that the worst case scenario does happen. That the current regime collapses and, as a result, millions of starving North Koreans flee to China and fears of nuclear havoc abound. What then? And what does Jong-Nam have to do with all of this? Quite a bit it seems... As you may have already surmised, speaking in such a way and having such prominent controversial viewpoints puts Jong-Nam in disfavour, if not life danger, of the current North Korean regime - there have been reports that Kim Jong-Un had planned to assassinate his eldest brother and that such plans were thwarted by China's intervention, but no verification of such allegations have surfaced as of yet. Fortunately, I suppose, Jong-Nam has lived in virtual exile in China for many years after he fell out of favour with his father.

Gomi says that Jong-Nam, "...has been protected by the Chinese side... If the Jong-Un regime collapses, [China] appears to be planning to send him to Pyongyang and make him become the next leader." China appears to be deeply concerned over the potential collapse of the current North Korean regime and well-aware of the possibility of a massive influx of refugees - of course by 'massive' I mean millions that a country of well over 1.3 billion should be able to accommodate...

This could be history in the making. Imagine millions of North Koreans fleeing to China, North Korea's reaction and what is in store for Kim Jong-Nam in the form of leadership. I will continue to follow these developments and it is my sincerest hope that this does not end in anything with the word "nuclear" in it.

Ever so Watchful,

- Chris

*****

Disclaimer: The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided, however, neither this hosting website nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. The hosting website and the author of this article do not accept responsibility or culpability for losses and/or damages arising from the use of this publication.